Forex Technical Analysis

Today’s wide spread down bar on the euro to pounds chart set us well on the way to our 200 pip target from this morning’s open as outlined in yesterday’s forex market analysis for this pair.  The down candle carried both weight and momentum blasting its way through all three moving averages and simultaneously breaching the strong support level created during July’s period of consolidation.  Our short term target for this pair remains the interim support level at 0.8450 which, given today’s price action, may well be achieved in tomorrow’s trading.  In addition today’s candle has also given us a bearish engulfing signal which I hope will be validated in tomorrow forex trading.  However, for longer term position traders I would advocate a degree of caution as the 0.8450 support level may come into play once again acting as a support to any further downwards move, and we could see a repeat of the reversals of mid June and late July.  However, should this level subsequently crumble, then we may see an even deeper move to re-test the 0.80 price point once again.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental news for this pair starts early tomorrow with the German PPI data which is forecast at -0.1%, the same as for last month, with the figures representing the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers and therefore a good indication of consumer inflation.  This is followed by the European current account which represents the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows and transfers during the prior month.  The forecast for tomorrow is -1.7bn against a previous of -1.2bn.  The focus then shifts to the UK where we have two items, the first of which is the minutes from the recent MPC meeting which provides a breakdown of the voting pattern for the last interest rate decision and these are expected at 0-0-9.  The first is how many voted to increase rates, the second the number of people voting for a rate reduction and the third is those who voted to keep rates on hold.   Any deviation will cause a surprise to the market.  The final piece of news is the CBI Industrial Orders expectation, yet another diffusion index this time based on a survey of over 500 manufacturers who are asked to rate their orders volumes for the forthcoming quarter.  The forecast for tomorrow is -50 with last month’s figure being -59, a long way from zero which would indicate a market experiencing increasing demand.

My trading suggestion for tomorrow is to wait for the release of the MPC minutes before entering any trades. You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.