Another very difficult pair to trade, in this case with a falling wedge, which suggest that the bear trend remains in place for the medium to long term. My view is that the euro is over bought and we should see a fall in the next few months. This one is therefore a long term trade only, and I wold suggest you use the daily charts to find an entry point to a long term sell. My suggestion is therefore to wait for a reversing signal in the daily candles and then to open your short position with a stop loss set well above the open. My own target for the pair is back to the resistance level at 0.7800, but this may take a few weeks or even into the summer so you will have to be patient with this trade. The 40 day moving average is suggesting a move lower and I will be more confident once we see the current price break below the 0.8650 region. If and when this happens then we should see the break lower.

On the $undamental newsnt the Revised GDP figures were released this morning with little impact on UK sterling coming in at -1.5% against a forecast of -1.6%. The only other news likely to affect the pound is MPC Member David Blanchflower is due to speak at the University of Stirling, in Scotland. If the statement is more hawkish than expected then this is likely to be good for the home currency, in this case the pound. MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

The short term and medium term is sideways, the long term outlook is bearish.